Last general election, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), riding the Modi wave, won all 25 seats in Rajasthan. The 2018 assembly elections, however, altered their fortunes with the party dwindling down to 73 seats (from 165) and Congress forming the government in the state with 100 seats (an increase of 79). This was in line with the trend of state governments changing every five years in Rajasthan.
Another political trend in the state is that the party which typically wins assembly elections also maintains its lead in the subsequent Lok Sabha election. However, this time around, this doesn’t appear to be the case.
Does that mean the BJP will repeat its 2014 performance? While it is likely that the party will lose seats, the loss – though substantial – is not likely to be overwhelming.