Widespread discontent among farmers, heightened by the havoc wrought by Cyclone Gaja, a strong challenge mounted by the AMMK in its home turf, and some amount of anti-incumbency, could combine to make the going tough for the AIADMK-BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu’s central region, which has about one crore voters.
It is highly unlikely that the ruling AIADMK would be able do an encore of 2014, when it swept all seven seats in the region. The result had jolted the DMK and marked a total reversal of the party’s 2004 performance, when it had bagged all seats in the region. In 2009, the DMK won three seats, while its ally, the VCK, bagged the Chidambaram seat.
The DMK is now looking to regain some lost ground in the company of the Left parties, which have had considerable following among farm labourers across the Cauvery delta. This, along with the traditional vote share of the Congress, and those of the MDMK and the VCK in certain pockets, could help the DMK achieve a turnaround, according to a section of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance’s cadre.