The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) has advanced into southeastern Rajasthan, much of Haryana, some parts of Punjab, and some parts of Jammu and Kashmir.
A trough in Bangladesh along with southwesterly moist winds from the Bay of Bengal lead to an instability over the northeastern India. The border between Arunachal Pradesh and Assam is likely to receive heavy rainfall with a total precipitation of 50 - 80 mm over a 12 hour period on Monday. Similarly, southern Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal are also likely to receive a total accumulation of 40 - 50 mm in the same period. Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Sikkim. Also, fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Another trough runs across the northern and eastern foothills. It is likely to bring moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms over Indo-gangetic plain while changing its intensity during this forecast period. Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely over Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to form in the western Bay of Bengal from the middle of the week. The onshore winds in the west continue to bring moist air from the Arabian Sea to the Konkan region resulting in vigorous thundershower. Inland areas of southern India are also likely to experience increased rainfall from mid-week on account of interactions with the cyclonic circulation mentioned above.
Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely over Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, coastal Maharashtra, Goa, and coastal Karnataka. Fairly widespread rain and thunderstorms can be expected over Odisha, Karnataka, Kerala, and the Andaman and Nicobar Island. Also, isolated rain and thunderstorms possible over Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
Another cyclonic circulation over Pakistan is likely to drive the southwesterly winds to northern India. Delhi and the NCR will possibly witness intermittent showers and lingering thundery activities this week. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are likely over Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu. Fairly widespread rain or snow and thunderstorms are also likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
Temperatures in Punjab are likely to 8°C cooler than normal until the mid-week.. On the contrary, the southern half of the country will experience average or warmer-than-normal maximum temperature for the next 5 days