Despite Congress' recent gains in Rajasthan, most Lok Sabha exit polls on May 19 predicted a clean sweep for the BJP in Rajasthan, with some exit polls handing them all 25 seats in the state.

The News18-IPSOS exit poll said the BJP is set to get 22 to 23 seats in the desert state, while the Today's Chanakya exit poll predicted all 25 seats to fall in BJP's kitty.
If the exit poll numbers turn out to be true, Rajasthan would represent a disappointing performance for the Congress, which had formed the government in the state after winning Assembly elections in December last year. The state saw several pitched battles in various constituencies, with the BJP primarily campaigning in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a stable government and national security, and the Congress dragging the attention to local issues and failures of the BJP at the centre.
Among interesting seats in the fray, Churu threw up a challenge for the Congress as the party had not won the Lok Sabha seat in two decades. Churu, part of the Shekhawati belt in Northern Rajasthan that also comprises neighbouring Sikar and Jhunjhunu districts, has a sizeable Muslim population of 12.24 per cent. The 2011 Census places Muslim population in Churu and Ratannagar, two cities in the district, at 43.33 and 40.88 per cent respectively. Four other towns have a Muslim population 30 per cent.

Additionally, Churu district’s Dalit population, 22.1 per cent, is one of the highest in all the districts in Rajasthan. The Northern region of the state also has a considerable Jat population.

Despite such favourable social demographics, Congress has failed to win the Churu Lok Sabha seat in 20 years. The gateway to the Thar has been held by the Bharatiya Janata Party since 1999; in fact the seat has been held by one family.